The first four (primary) states: What past and present tell us about future

It seems like just yesterday, we (I) were (was) waiting for Bernie to announce his second bid for president and hoping Hillary would not do her William Jennings Bryan imitation.

Nine months later, it’s a boy!

Just kidding. It still won’t be anything for three more months. But we don’t have to wait impatiently for states to vote. We can look at data. (NOT early polling. Early polling is atrocious. Early polling is so bad that it ought to be illegal. Anyone who tries to surmise…